Global Warming: Lessons in Epistemology (and Sociology)
Climate, Carbon, and Corruption
I see likely epistemological errors in the reasoning of some who have been alarming others by their science-based predictions related to theories of Man-Induced Global Warming
(brief outline by Moreman).
1) The predictions are based on models that are incomplete. They lack mechanisms that are known to be lacking.
2) There is, in some, a tacit belief that adding tune-able parameters
into the modeling, without solving the core incompleteness, makes for better modeling. John von Neumann's Elephant, at the beginning of the computer era, warned that the opposite can be true.
In addition to flaws of an epistemological nature, the theories seem incomplete in their analysis of the impact of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
Consider these facts:
1) Carbon dioxide is released by oceans as they warms.
2) CO2 is one of the best radiators of heat.
3) As atmospheric CO2 increases, the radiation of heat from the upper parts of the air's Hadley Cells must be increasing -- and this must have a COOLING effect.
So, the increase in Earth's temperature might be due to the same unknown mechanism M behind the warming and cooling of the Medieval Warm Period. The increase in atmospheric CO2 is partly due to increasing temperature and partly due to Industry. CO2 might have a cooling effect that lessens the impact of unknown climate mechanism M.
The flaws in the science seem so obvious and so strong that one is led to speculate about the susceptibility of "scientists" to "extraordinary popular delusions" and "the madness of crowds."
These thoughts are explored in