Hypotheses and Guesses by DouglasMoreman
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I thought of these -- in ignorance of similar hypotheses made by others.

INDEX. Some links below are to other pages.
Aposyndesis: why we cannot "all get along."
Failures of Epistemology in computer modeling of climate.
Conscious Artificial Intelligence ought to be possible, even easy.
The Birds of a Feather Hypothesis: Speciation via Innate Behaviors.
Vitamin D impacts found via racial differences.
Near-sightedness as a result of slow reaction to feedback.
Early peoples of Americas and Australia were killed off by diseases from Europe.
Explaining the holes made by methane explosions in Yamal, Siberia.
Yucatan Asteroid made lava flows in Decca India, Extinction.
How Cuba made the Louisiana salt domes.
Subsidence of Southern Louisiana.
Sub-Sahara's Ancient Sewers: where are they?
Global Warming produced both Vikings and Ghengis Khan
Neil deGrasse Tyson's Dog's reasoning error.
Global Warming as a social phenomenon related to aposyndesis.
Some links relevant to CO2 and Climate Dipylon Shields of ancient Greece and the phalanx.
Asking and answering practical questions inspired by the Old Testament:
Hezekiah's Tunnel under Jerusalem: explained. How it was quickly dug and how it helped, actively, to defeat the Assyrians
Why King David used a royal mule (rather than a horse).
And, why does the Old Testament speaks of eating children, and of leaders rending their garments.
Uzziah: the earliest references to projectile-throwing engines of war?

Highly crafted Egyptian schist-disk
How Xerxes bridged the Hellespont, and withstood currents.(a secret beneath the surface, not mentioned by Herodotus)

Mysterious, natural explosions in Arctic Siberia
Russians fail to understand the Yamal explosions.
Except for being 100 or so yards across, the holes resemble holes left by cicadas when they emerge from the ground.
Those mysterious holes in the Yamal Penninsula near the Arctic coast of Siberia in 2014 and early 2015 have NOT been (by early 2016) corectly explained -- judging from some news accounts that quote "experts." It is easy to see that a cap could have been blown off the top of one of these vertical shafts by methane that accumulated in the shaft directly below the top. They are, afterall, near to oil fields, so it is plausible that there is a methane-stratum down below.
What is not explained is the smooth-bore vertical shaft. Well, have you ever wondered what a "salt-dome" (aka "salt-diapir") would look like if the salt ever were to dissolve away?
I checked: there does exist salt in the Siberian Arctic. Indeed, some "expert" in Siberia is quoted as having said that water, salt and methane combined to explode. Which seems a likely mis-translation, but suggests that salt was noticed in at least one of the mysterious cicada-holes.
Hypothesis: Salt Domes in Yamal: What became the Yamal lay, eons ago, beneath a sea that dried up and deposited a layer of salt. That salt was covered by sediments. Some of the layers of sediments contained organic material that produced methane. The pressure of the dense sediments eventually forced salt to rise in "bubbles" and columns through the layers of sediment. Near the surface, conditions changed (yet again), the Earth bulged and the tops of the shafts of salt were raised and were exposed to water -- there might have been a stratum of rock through which water flowed. The salt dissolved away from the top parts of the shafts. Methane rising from an organic layer punctured was trapped in the top of the shaft. An explosion would require two more things. Ignition is not a problem. But, how did oxygen mix with the methane?
Vitamin D: Racial Differences Tell Us Where to Look.
There seems to be an "epidemic," in the U.S., of deficiency in Vitamin D - caused by people getting far less exposure to sunlight than people did, and do, in the absence of air-conditioning and television.
Darker skin reduces, more than lighter skin, the amount of ultra violet light from the sun that is converted into Vitamin D. There exist ailments that afflict darker skinned Americans more than lighter skinned Americans. Some of these ailments might not be related to deficiency of Vitamin D. But:
Hypothesis: A list of all ailments that afflict darker skinned Americans more than lighter skinned American contains every ailment that is worsened by Vitamin D deficiency.
The list notably includes obesity. Hence, it might be premature of governments to be deciding food-policies for schools that are based on an incomplete set of assumptions about causes of obesity.
As the "epidemic" is diminished via inexpensive pills, a number of ailments will ameliorate in the population, changing policy-decisions of our health agencies.

Civilization Makes Us Near-Sighted: Hypothesis: myopia results from a calibration of the Horizon done indoors. The eye has a feedback mechanism that changes the tension exerted by muscles around a lens, changing its shape so that an object at some range is well-imaged upon the retina. A much slower-acting feedback mechanism trains those muscles to relax just enough to focus on "the horizon" (most distant focus, would be good for seeing stars). This slow mechanism can be mis-trained so that objects far off in a house are treated as if on the horizon. Outside, the person is, then, near-sighted. [more later]

Deccan Traps. An asteroid can do damage on opposite sides of the world. The Deccan Traps resulted from successive lava-flows in what is today the nation of India. The timing of those lava-flows suggests a connection with the famous, dinosaur-killing asteroid impact in what is today present day Yucatan, about 65 million years ago. Running the drifts of continents backwards in time, one sees that, at the time of the impact of that asteroid, Decca might have been directly across the center of the Earth from that impact. If so, shock waves from the impact would have recombined in and under Decca.
Hypothesis: the stresses of the recombined shock waves have punched a hole in the Earth's crust, releasing already em-pressured lava.
Cuban Blockade Makes Salt There are hundreds of salt-domes in Louisiana and many more southward, under the Gulf of Mexico. Columns of salt rise from a stratum of salt buried below a few tens of thousands of feet of more-dense sedimetary layers. How was that stratum of salt laid down and then covered by tens of thousands of feet of sediment?
Well, perhaps, the proto Gulf of Mexico dried up because 1) western Cuba abutted both Yucatan and Florida, separating those waters from the proto Atlantic, and 2) more water was evaporated from the isolated sea than rivers replenished. If you look carefully at what Google Earth provides, you can see an indentation in the continental shelf of Yucatan that seems to match the continental shelf of western Cuba.
It was already widely believed, before I figured it out, that a sea had dried-up, leaving a layer of salt to be covered by future sediments from North America. I merely call your attention to how the shape of the northern side of western Cuba matches the eastern side of Yucatan.


Hezekiah's Tunnel Explained. Two Chronicles 32 suggests that Hezekiah built a tunnel to bring water, from a spring just outside the walls, into Jerusalem -- in preparation for a seige by the army being amassed by Sennacherib in Assyria.
Chronicles 32:1 ... Sennacherib king of Assyria came, and entered into Judah, and encamped against the fenced cities, and thought to win them for himself. 2 And when Hezekiah saw that Sennacherib was come, and that he was purposed to fight against Jerusalem, 3 He took counsel with his princes and his mighty men to stop the waters of the fountains which were without the city: and they did help him. 4 So there was gathered much people together, who stopped all the fountains, and the brook that ran through the midst of the land, saying, Why should the kings of Assyria come, and find much water?
And therein lies a possible
Real Reason the siege of Jerusalem circa 701 BC failed.
(my appologies to the Bible, Herodatus, and Sennacherib)
A 2011 article by Ronny Reich and Eli Shukron claims to have proven that Hezekiah's tunnel was built some hundreds of years before that attack in 701 BC.
Their reasoning, such that I can see of it, leaves me unconvinced. They seem to have missed obvious considerations. But I do not have access to all of their paper.
Ref: "The date of the Siloam Tunnel reconsidered". Tel Aviv 38: 147157
Is there a manic, concerted attack by some Archaeologists on evidence from the Bible? Some of the "evidence" given to "disprove" some biblical implications seems weak.
Consider this: Some archaeologists have claimed that the Hebrews could not have dug that tunnel in response to a threat from Assyria because the diggging would have taken four years. This seems likely to be wrong. Apparently, having degrees in Archaeology does not make one an expert on all kinds of digging. Some of the relevant articles are hidden to us plebians, but that ought not shut down our comman sense. A) When Hezekiah ordered the tunnel dug, it might have already been partly, even largely, dug out some hundreds of years earlier. B) There are ways to get more workers to work on a face being cut than are obvious -- doubling the rate of digging.
C) *** If you are one of those aforementioned authors: pay me a bunch of money and I will tell you :) Or, maybe you can figure it out for yourself. Just study this map of the tunnel.

How Hezekiah Saved Jerusalem
There seem to be three accounts of Sennacherib's experiences with Jerusalem: from Egypt through Herodatus, the Bible, a written and a pictoral account in Ninevah. They give three different reasons for the Assyrian army leaving without actually attacking the walls of Jerusalem. My own hypothesis, based on reading those accounts, is that Hezekiah hide or poisoned most sources of water around the walls of Jerusalem. When the 180,000 men of the Assyrian army camped around those walls, they became ill from the water that was available. And, made a face-saving deal and left.


Aposyndesis (apologies to mathematician F. Burton Jones of Texas)
There are human social instincts. Some social instincts of Man relate to aposyndesis -- "being bound together away from", being bound to some group and simultaneously away from some other group.
More on Aposyndesis.

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds describes examples of mad social behavior based on, I will borrow from common usage and call them "memes," shared beliefs that happened to have been delusions. Instructively, the believers were, in each case, a goodly proportion of the brightest and most successful people of some advanced society. The social behaviors illustrated by the many examples of that book are timeless and can be observed around us today. Even people who know this history still repeat it.
Meme-ish behavior, today, is hard to detect by people to whom the beliefs seem reasonable. Of course, they would seem. That is how our brains work?
Some memes that involve a belief about the way the world works are true. But also true and interesting, in my own observation, is that most of the memites of a meme have no actual understanding, regardless of the strength of their belief and regardless of the truth or falsehood of what is, superficially, believed. Most people are followers. If this were not so, perhaps civilization would not exist. Even ants "know" the virtue of separating leaders from heavy lifters.
There seems to be no way, for one on the outside looking in to tell, from simply the behavior of the bulk of the believers, whether their particular memish belief is true or is false. For most folks, memish behavior is only superficially about Truth. It is actually about Belonging.
A "True Believer" is more correctly called a "True Belonger." The word "belief " suggests that the person has some smidgen of understanding of what he professes. But, his professing is seldom about understanding a truth, it is about expressing his membership in one group and his separation from some other groups. Though, rationalizations often provide some connection with actual facts.
Evolved instincts of Aposyndedic behavior binds people together against other people.
Global Warming ("AGW") is one of today's most magnificent examples of the memish madness of crowds. Its adherents seem nearly universally ignorant of why science might take the supposed theory seriously. Oh, they Think they know, of course. But, gentle questioning reveals that their belief is faith-based: faith in what some media sources (perhaps interviewing supposed "experts") and government sources assure them is "science." Maybe it is.
Or, maybe Truth is sacrificed to Aposyndesis.
Can Science be immune to the forces of Belief?
There is science of common sense and there is priestly science.
There was a time when science was skeptical and much of Science could be explained so clearly that common sense could grasp it. Honestly grasp it - as opposed to parroting parts of it in catechisms expressed in jargons of sciences.
People who cannot even describe how "the" temperature of the Earth can reasonably be measured, will assert:
"Greenhouse gases are trapping heat, raising the temperature of the Earth."
OK. Tell us the relative contribution of water vapor and CO2 to trapping of heat?
Avoiding that point altogether, "Well, the globe has never been as hot as it is now."
If so, then why was Greenland "green" and growing cows for 300 or so years?
Why do tree rings in Tibet suggest four warm-periods in a regular pattern -- from the height of Rome until today?
Why are there remains of ancient Scott's pines 300 feet higher in the Scandes mountains of Sweden than such pines live today?
Why are there tree stumps in Siberia that are 9,000 years old and mark an Arctic treeline that is north of today's treeline?
If, as has been asserted, "Increased CO2 makes more water vapor, a greenhouse gas which amplifies warming" a bit more warming due to CO2 will trigger a positive feedback via water vapor, hence leading to un-stoppable greenhouse warming then why did that not happen during the Medieval Warming Period (which for 300 years or so was hotter than today, or happen 9000 years ago)?
If, as has been asserted, methane being released by warming of some permafrost will cause further warming due to the energy to be trapped by this potent greenhouse gas then why did this not happen when that permafrost was subjected, for 300 or so years, to the warmer air of Medieval Warming when trees grew nearer to the North Pole than they do today?
It has been asserted that the Medieval Warming Period was "local" and can be ignored in modeling world climate. That the Period was glocal is indicated by chemicals deposited in a cave in South Africa.
Perhaps Science can get rid of that pesky "Medieval Warming Period"? The famous Hockey Stick did that; but, itself seems to have been discredited or dropped.
One of the main characters in the Global Warming play, Phil Jones, head of UK's CRU seemed, in 2010, to agree the the Medieval Warming Period did happen.
As of September 2015, it appears that Jim Hansen has replaced his insistence
A) that water evaporated due to heating via CO2 will trap so much additional heat that run away feedback will result and the Globe will be cooked (so to speak; still reported as "fact" on some web sites) with
B) CO2 will cause oceans to heat and this will melt huge glaciers so fast that the Globe will be drowned (much of it).
But, why did no previous period of warming, warmer than today, have either of those results?

What lack of incredulity allows someone to believe that Anyone today understands climate well enough to account, in a computer model, for all the causal elements of climate?
Can a typical AGW memite state one simplified equation from one "climate model"? Are they aware of how little science is in the core of models used to advise their governments?
If even one of the computer models of climate is correct then which one of them predicted the on-going 20 year reduction in the rate of warming of the atmosphere?
None. Then every one of them is wrong?
Likewise, not one of them can explain the Medieval Warming Period? If not, then everyone of them is wrong?
"Global Warming" has been the excuse for hundreds of billions of dollars spent around the world. What is the relative size of the amount spent on studies that might show that Global Warming is NOT a serious problem?
That the models are wrong might have been obvious from their error of incompleteness?
Is it possible that a few alarmed scientists alarmed a few politicians who used that alarm to gather support to their persons then used their power to open floodgates of government-spending - which led to grants being given to scientists and businesses whose grant-proposals echoed that alarm? Naysayers have lost their career-prospects or even lost their jobs. In a positive feedback, the funded projects produce literature that seemingly supports the memish alarm, thus leading to further calls of alarm and for action and for futher funding. Is this a kind of " bubble" such as that of the South Sea Islands detailed for us in "Popular Delusions ...?

People have built and financed academic careers on Global Warming. One of these folks is paraphrased as having warned a person, wrongly believed to be a fellow Belonger, "We have to get rid of the Medieval Warming." It might seem impossible to "get rid of " 300 years of cows in Greenland and the Mongol invasions of that warmer period? But, it seems that attempts have been made to do just that. Perhaps the attempts were honest? But, why did the ICPP drop the Medieval Warming Period, which had been in its 1990 report. It adopted the Hockey Stick, which shows no such period of warming. Why, later, did the ICPP drop that Viking-free "hockey-stick" from its reports - but did not return the Medieval Warming Period?
Perhaps the Globe really is being cooked. Or, perhaps the AGW meme is another South Sea Bubble about to burst. If you had to invest all your wealth one way or the other, which way would you go. With the crowd or against?
More thoughts on CO2 and Climate Catastrophe"
Artificial Consciousness.
I wonder why this is considered to be a difficult problem? My first guess is that people who think it is difficult have some more spiritual or subjective way of looking at "consciousness" than I do.
Perhaps the level of difficulty falls when a subjective approach is replaced with one that is objective?
I suspect that we can create an objectively recognizable consciousness in a robot if we have in mind a phenomenon in which robots communicate with each other and create models (in software) of other robots and in the same manner, each robot creates a model of itself -- which it "talks" about. If a human were to listen-in on a robot talking about itself, that person might think that the robot is "conscious"?
Suppose, we have a pod of robots.
There is a shared Umwelt which has eigenforms" ("concepts") that are, in early robots, instinctive (we program them in).
Each robot has a self-monitoring system: which has sensors within the body that send data to the Self-Monitor software. Each robot has eigenforms (initially ones that we create) relating to sensory data, and to combinations of that data.
The robots share a language that is based on their shared eigenforms.
We give the robots instincts, including motivations, relevant to sharing experiences including sensory information from the outside world and the inside world. The instincts would include planning of conversations.
We program into the Self-Monitor functions by which it can communicate with other robots.
Behavioral Speciation
Hypothesis: Some species have genes that encourage individuals to mate with others who have a familiar appearance. So, if a mutation causes some siblings to all be red rather than blue, there will be a tendency to mate with other reds. Which might involve incest at the beginning, but later would tend, probabilistically, to cause reds and blues to segregate. Other mutations could then cause reds and blues to evolve into increasingly distinct nitches and, eventually become two species even though not separated geographically.
"Races" are necessary precusors to formation of new species. So, before the reds and blues become two species, they will for some time be two "races."
Subsidence of Southern Louisiana
Hypothesis: The mud of the Mississippi River Delta is slowly oozing downhill and off the continental shelf. Occassionally, particularly on steeper slopes, it has a local episode of rapid flow that can destroy oil pipelines.
Some part of the coastal subsidence of Louisiana is due to the flow, under gravity, of those Delta sediments.
Sub-Saharan Sewers Hypothesis: There weren't any before about 1400 AD.
Question: Why not?
What Killed-Off the American Indians?
More than forty years ago, I wondered at the small numbers of American Indians. There ought to have been millions of them. All the deaths in all the battles and massacres, in North American, seemed to sum to less than one bad day in World War I. So, I was not surprised to learn of evidence that European diseases had killed unrecorded millions. Smallpox was the worse killer. All the diseases together may have reduced the numbers of the American Indians by more than 95% by 1700 -- though, as they died, it seems they left almost no evidence of that dying.
There is such confusion in websites about the vanishing Red Man and even about related questions of immunities to European diseases, that I will present here my own understanding of them.
Eurasians have lived with domesticated animals for thousands of years. For thousands of years, people of Afroeurasia have been assaulted by diseases that mutated and jumped to people from their animals. Some other parts of the world were long isolated from these diseases. The people of the Americas and of Australia seem to have been among those that did not become infected with these diseases before the advent of European explorations made possible by new kinds of sailing ships and canons. [this theory was not invented by me. I hope to insert more of it here later.]
President Andrew Jackson may have saved the lives of many Creeks and Cherokees when, through Congress, he had them take up lands to the west in exchange for their parts of what are now parts of Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi.
How the US Saved the Remaining Indians

The Global Warming of the Mongols and Vikings
One might wonder, I know I did, how a land so sparsely populated today with men and horses produced enough of each to allow Genghis Khan and his descendants to conquer most of China and, to the west, kill 48,000 of the 50,000 people in Viking-ruled Kiev, and destroy a sequence of armies as far west as Poland.
Hypothesis: For 300 or so years, warm weather had allowed the growth of numbers of Mongols and their horses not seen since.
Also: the same period of warming allowed Vikings to settle in "Green Land."
Tibetan Graph. Tree rings suggest that the Medieval Warming Period was not limited to Europe.
Also: the same warming period led to migrations of Indian tribes in North America.

Dipylon Shields.
I cannot find a Web site that make total sense of dipylon shields -- how they were used, in ancient Greece, in an infantry phalanx. Jennifer Cockyane, of New Zealand, and I have figured it out, we think. Some ancient images
In the image here, the shield on the left is "dipylon." It has symmetrically placed partial holes. I have not found even one image, ancient or modern, that shows a complete idea of their use.
These seem to be hints: The shield has holes on two opposite sides. The word "di pylon" can be interpreted as Two Poles.
I have not found anyone joining those two facts together!
So, I hypothesize:
The holes, symmetric to each other on opposite sides of the shield, could be used to lock shields together in a shield-wall. When used this way, the left forearm of a soldier would be vertical. When not in a shield-wall, the supporting forearm would be horizontal.
It seems likely, by the way, that a contingent of left-handed soldiers would be on the right flank, providing some increased defense against projectiles.

Biblical Engines of War: Two Chronicles 26:15. "And he [King Uzziah] made in Jerusalem
engines, invented by cunning men, to be on the towers and upon the bulwarks,
to shoot arrows and great stones withal..."

This might (circa 760 BC?) be the earliest historical record of "engines" such as catapults and large "crossbows." This seems to have been omitted from some histories of weapons.

More about why King David and sons Use Mules, and such
"And the servants of Absalom did unto Amnon as Absalom had commanded. Then all the king's sons arose, and every man gat him up upon his mule, and fled." Two Samuel 13:29
"The king also said unto them, Take with you the servants of your lord, and cause Solomon my son to ride upon mine own mule, and bring him down to Gihon:" One Kings 1:33
It is not hard to figure out why mules were prefered in Judah but horses were prefered in many other civilizations of circa 1000 BC.
Some people hear about but do not understand, even anthropologically, references in the Bible to
rending of garments (Genesis 37:34 And Joseph rent his clothes, and put sackcloth upon his loins, and mourned ..." or to
eating children. Leviticus 26:29 Two Kings 6:29 Ezekial 5:10

Mystery of the Egyptian Schist Dish

Xerxes built a bridge over the Hellespont (circa 480 BC) There is a secret beneath the surface, not mentioned by Herodetus:
The bridging was done in the following way: fifty-oared ships and triremes were set side by side, about three hundred and sixty to form the Euxinian bridge, and about three hundred and fourteen to form the other bridge, all of them at right angles to the Pontus and parallel to the Hellespont, thus taking off some of the tension from the ropes. Once the ships were alongside one another, they released huge anchors, both from the end near the Pontus because of the winds blowing from that sea, and on the other end towards the west and the Aegean because of the western and southern winds. A passage was left in the opening of the fifty-oared ships and triremes in order that, if he wished to go into or out of the Pontus, he could pass through in a small ship. Having done all this, they stretched ropes from the land and twisted them with wooden pulleys, and they did not keep each separate, but assigned two flaxen cables and four papyrus cables for each bridge. Each type of cable was thick and comely, but the report goes that the flaxen cables were heavier, a single yard weighing over 100 pounds. (3) When the sea was bridged, wooden timbers equal to the breadth of the floating ships were felled and were laid on the stretched cables, and laying them alongside one another they tied them fast. Having done this, they put down brushwood, laying it on the timbers, and they put down earth on top of the brushwood, stamping it down and building a fence on the earth on each side in order that the beasts of burden and the horses would not be frightened by the sea flowing beneath them.
I offer this: since, the Hellespont has a surface current flowing towards the Black Sea and a bottom current flowing out of the Black Sea. By using sea-achors, the force on a ship of the two currents could be made to cancel each other.

Another example of bad science. For how many decades have we been told that exposure to cold weather does not cause colds? One line of experimentation, over-generalized to imply that exposure to cold weather was not a danger and, though wrong, became accepted wisdom.

We waited 225 years for this composer: Alma Deutscher
Here she is, age 7, IMPROVISING, at a piano
They arrived in their Mercedes and BMWs and she made them cry, Amira Willighagen, age about 11. She taught herself how to sing, listening to old recordings.
Here she is getting started: Holland's Got Talent 2013, age 9.
Michal Schwartz, my candidate for best woman scientist