Lessons in Epistemology
Modified on
By Douglas Moreman.
I see likely epistemological errors in the reasoning of some who have been alarming others by their science-based predictions related to theories of Man-Induced Global Warming
(Brief outline of MIGW by Moreman).

Two related flaws in modeling:
1) Predictions are based on models that are incomplete. They lack mechanisms that are known to be lacking.
2) There is, in some, a tacit belief that adding tune-able parameters into the modeling, without solving the core incompleteness, makes for better modeling.
John von Neumann's Elephant, at the beginning of the computer era, warned that the opposite can be true.

So, the increase in Earth's temperature might be due to the same unknown mechanism M behind the warming and cooling of the Medieval Warm Period. The increase in atmospheric CO2 is partly due to increasing temperature and partly due to Industry. CO2 might have a cooling effect that lessens the impact of unknown climate mechanism M.

These thoughts are explored in

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